Intro: Do you feel like you were meant to have a kick-ass career as a hair stylist? Like you got into this industry to make big things happen?
Maybe you’re struggling to build a solid base and want some stability. Maybe you know social media is important, but it feels like a waste of time because you aren’t seeing any results. Maybe you’ve already had some amazing success, but are craving more. Maybe you’re ready to truly enjoy the freedom and flexibility this industry has to offer.
Cutting and coloring skills will only get you so far, but to build a lifelong career as a wealthy stylist, it takes business skills and a serious marketing strategy. When you’re ready to quit, just working in your business and start working on it, join us here, where we share real success stories from real stylists.
I’m Britt Seva, social media and marketing strategist just for hair stylists, and this is the Thriving Stylist Podcast.
Britt Seva: What is up, my loves, and welcome back to the Thriving Stylist Podcast. I’m your host, Britt Siva, really excited for this episode. It’s one of my favorites. I want to talk about predictions for what’s to come in the industry.
Now, this is the fourth or fifth time I’ve done this. It’s only the second time I’ve done it on the podcast. I used to do an episode like this on Facebook or Periscope. Where are my OG followers at, right? Back in the day—and historically I’ve done pretty well in doing it.
The last prediction episode I did was about 18 months ago. (It’s episode number 45 if you want to go back and listen.) I’m going to do a brief overview of my predictions from back then, and you can see how close I got if I was way off the mark.
And then I want to talk about what I think is yet to come in the industry and actually in a futurecast a total of three years out, because I think our industry is going through a revelation and I want to best prepare you for what’s to come.
Before we dive into that, let’s just go back in history to start.
The first prediction I made was that there would be a shift in structure. I said I thought there’d be a boom in mini-salons, meaning two, three, four up to six chair-salons versus the massive salons that we had seen historically, right? The 12 or 20-chairers. More of these micro teams.
I thought those would pop up, but studio suites would boom.
I believed that more salons would start paying an hourly wage versus the very non-traditional compensation methods that exist in our industry predominantly. There’s a lot of funky compensation stuff that happens in our industry if you don’t know this. Illegal 1099s, commission structures that aren’t totally legal either, the idea that we rent chairs within a leased space, like a lease within a lease—it’s subleases, right? Which in most other industries would never be allowed.
There’s just a lot of funky stuff that we do within our industry. That’s like the social norm. Some of it’s fine, some of it’s totally not okay. But I do think, particularly what we saw going through this pandemic and how unemployment rolled out and all of the nuances that come up when compensation’s a little left of center, I think we’re going to see more traditional compensation methods rolling out across salons, but that was something I predicted about 18 months ago. We did see a little bit of that over the last few months. I think we’re going to see it more.
And then stylists shifting from booth rental back to commission. I saw a whole lot of that as a business coach: a lot of owners actually choosing to be commissioned stylists. Why? Cause they know commission doesn’t suck. They know you can make just as much money without having to have that tremendous pressure of being an owner, right? Carrying that weight. You qualify for state benefits. Maternity leave is awesome. There’s a lot of things you get as an employee of a business that you wouldn’t find elsewhere.
That was the first set of predictions. My second set was that the quality of education would improve. I still believe that we will continue to see that. I think, without a doubt, industry education has improved dramatically in the last 18 months. I think we’re still going to head that direction.
My third prediction, this one I’m really proud of because I hit the nail on the head, mobile hairdressing expands. I’m so stoked, you guys, and we have an amazing mobile hair stylist who’s going to be a guest on the episode coming up very soon. Lauren, we can not wait to hear from you.
And we are going to see that boom even greater right alternative working methods. That’s going to boom huge in the next few years.
My fourth prediction was that video marketing will continue to reign. You guys, if you haven’t doubled down on video marketing, you’re almost losing the window of opportunity. We’re going to get to that little later in this episode, but now is the time to get a grip on your marketing and video marketing is going to be a huge piece of that.
And then my fifth prediction was that clients would be less patient, less cool about having to wait six to eight weeks to come in to see you, less understanding. If you run later, you run long. Less flexible if you don’t respond immediately, so automating your business is something that I saw a huge need for over the last 18 months. I sure as heck nailed that if you’re still a stylist, who’s like, “I am doing so well because I have a waitlist of six to eight weeks long,” you’re not doing so well.
You’re losing literally— wait for it—tens of thousands of dollars a year. Don’t congratulate yourself for that six to eight-week waitlist. Even now we have to thin through that. It’s super important and I’ve coached that for many years.
There’s a lot of stylists who are successful, who’ve worked with me, who were like, “Are you sure about that?” and then they’ll apply my methodology. And they’re like, “Oh shoot. She was right.”
It’s not a good thing. You’re losing business and you’re not creating scalability within your business.
Those were the five predictions I made back in 2018. Let’s fast forward to 2020 and futurecasts.
Now the first prediction I have is heartbreaking to me. It is against everything I coach for in the industry, but I’m also a realist and I’ve also seen this happening currently so I can’t ignore it from my predictions.
I think our industry’s about to see a mass exodus and it’s heartbreaking. I don’t know what that exodus will be. I know that in 2008 – 2009, 4% of the industry left. I think this time it’ll be closer to 20 to 40%. A lot.
That is a bit of a generalization based on statistics, and seeing from the labor board, and from other places about what is going to happen to small business.
Hair stylists, even booth renters, are considered small business owners, right? Independent business owners, right? You don’t have to have your name on the salon to be an independent business owner. If you’re a hair stylist, you live and die by your decisions. Even in the best commission salon, your salon owner, doesn’t build your clientele for you. You have to build your own reputation.
And it kills me to think that 20 to 40% of our industry could walk away. But if I’m being a realist, it’s already happening. I have heard dozens of stories of stylists choosing to go into real estate instead, choosing to be an executive assistant somewhere instead, choosing to pursue a totally different avenue. Something that they’ve been considering, a passion project, working for their families, all of these alternative careers, because it just doesn’t seem worth it anymore. It was kind of hard before and now it’s feeling next to impossible. There are no longer norms, right? They don’t exist anymore. And that feels overwhelming.
I think with that mass exodus, we’re going to see salon closures. I happen to be in California. Some of the best San Francisco Bay Area salons have announced their closures in the last two weeks. It’s gutting to think that that is where we’re at, but it is where we’re at.
We have to look at the reality of those who were in the industry in 2019, 10, 15, 20, 40% will not be by 2023. That is a prediction I know will be true to a degree.
Where you want to land as far as that exodus is fully up to you. I’m somebody who looks at every opportunity as a glass half empty or a glass half full. If 40% of the industry leaves, 60% stay. The majority will stay and somebody’s going to have to be the safety net to catch the clientele of the 20, 30, 40% who walk. To me, it’s a tremendous opportunity. Is it overwhelming to think that 20%, 30%, 40% won’t make it abso-freaking-lutely.
But you could go crazy thinking about that versus putting all of your energy into saying this is going to be creating opportunity for those who are down to make some short term sacrifices and work really hard to secure a strong future with that prediction.
Number two: Salons who stay open will be packed. And I don’t just mean with clients. Stylists are going to end up salon-homeless. I’m very nervous for the stylist who decided that their salon owner has been unfair during this time and choose to leave. I understand why they do it. I know that not all salon owners are perfect and could use some leadership training. Totally get it. But if you have a good salon owner, you might want to stick around because with every salon that closes, that produces six homeless stylists, eight homeless stylists.
There will be an abundance of stylists looking for places to work. There are not enough salon suites to house them all. There are not even enough salons to house them. All the mass exodus from the industry will help with that a bit. But I do think that if you own a salon and you’re able to weather the storm, there will be a lot of stylists looking for a place to set up shop. Very talented stylists looking for a new place to work, so the opportunity will be there.
When I say packed, I mean with clients and with stylists, and if you spend this time focusing on building a strong salon culture, defining what your salon is going to look like on the flip side of this, choosing to be the best salon in your area, and using this gap in our industry to create that reputation for yourself, my gosh, we’re going to celebrate you big 18 months, two years from now. That’s how I’d be using my time if I was a salon owner.
Prediction number three: I see giant shifts in structure working structure. I think we will see salon owners who choose to booth rent. I think we’ll see booth renters who choose to work commission. I think studio suites will boom. I think stylists who have been waiting around a long time for their chance to own are going to do it. I actually know that they are—I’m talking to them in my DMs. I’m also talking to owners who were like, “Yep, if somebody else wants to run this show, they can have at it.”
I think we’re going to see a real shakeup. It’s going to be very interesting. And with that, I think there’s actually going to be a greater understanding within our industry, which is incredible. I think for a long time, it almost was like the owners versus the stylists or there’s this funky dynamic. I think we’re going to see a shift in that and this is going to be very much a community over competition industry.
On the flip side, we’re already seeing it. We’re seeing stylist band together, supporting each other creatively, networking and marketing together to support a community. I think that’s going to stay in place for a long time and that, to me, is very exciting.
So be ready to see some structural changes. New salon owners, emerging existing salon owners may be looking for a space to rent; if you’re an owner be openminded.
If somebody who is a former owner is looking to rent or work commission with you, I want to give you some questions to ask to ensure they’re going to be a good fit.
If I was going to employ a former salon owner, I would say, “Are you truly ready to take off your salon owner hat and enjoy the gift that is being an employee? Enjoy your time as just a booth renter? What makes you want to unload that responsibility as an owner?” And making sure that they’re ready to do that.
For me, if I was hiring an owner, I would say in the interview process, “I’m really excited to have you here. I know you’ve led a team. I know you completely understand what that looks like and how hard it is when you join our team. I would ask that you keep your salon owner hat off. I know you’ve walked 10 miles in the snow. You and I have walked the same journey. We both know how hard it is. I am the leader in this space. It doesn’t mean I’m not open to your feedback privately, but we don’t have room here for two owners. So I just want to be sure you’re truly ready to take that pressure off and be a stylist.”
I would lay that out from the start because if I had a penny for every time an owner thought they were ready to booth rent, and then every time the existing owner turned around, the former owner would say, “Well, you know, in my salon,” and it causes friction amongst all parties. We don’t want that.
So you, even though it’s an awkward conversation, you have to lay that out in the beginning if you are going to employ a former owner. So just something to keep in mind,
Prediction number four: demand for hair services will explode. It’s funny to me because when I was coaching stylist to doing legal at-home color kits or even filming training videos, showing clients how to cut their spouse’s hair, there was a whole like, “Oh my gosh, you are going to just minimize all of the effort that we’ve put into building this beautiful skillset for ourselves.”
No, I’m not trying to minimize anything. I think it’s naive to think that you could film an impressive video for your client showing them how to cut their husband’s hair and then think they could actually do it. They can’t. But what the client would acknowledge is she tried, like, “Britt really tried to help me cut my husband’s hair. I’m not as talented as she is. I can’t wait to get back in to see her versus the stylist who was like, ‘Nope, can’t cut your hair. Can’t cut your husband’s hair. Don’t have any help for you guys. Good luck.’”
That’s certainly not customer service and it’s very difficult to build a relationship on that.
The other pushback I saw when I was suggesting that stylists share tutorials for their clients was some said, “Well, I don’t need to create tutorials for my clients. They can look that up on YouTube.”
Have you guys ever tried to find a haircutting video on YouTube? It’s very hard. I don’t cut hair anymore. I was never any good at it and I’m certainly still not now. A girlfriend of mine was like, “I’m desperate. I need to cut my son’s hair. What can I do?”, I probably spent 90 minutes trying to find a decent haircutting video.
In the end I sent her like three and I was like, “Pkay, so the first six minutes of that one, and then you fast forward to the end of this other one.” It’s really hard. Not all content is created equal. The idea that our clients will love doing haircuts at home and stop coming in to see us is bananas.
So when I say demand for services will explode, think about supply and demand. If 4%, 10%, 20%, 40% of our industry leaves, all of those clients will be looking for you. It is an amazing opportunity to grow and build if you’re patient enough to get there. It will take time.
I’m saying this is a long game, but our industry will boom. It won’t struggle.
Number five. On the flip side of that, the demand to stay sharp in your marketing will increase, not decrease. I’m going to say it again for the people in the back: the demand to stay sharp in your marketing will increase, not decrease.
I know it to be true because I talked to my Thrivers Society stylists whose marketing is on a another level and they are getting 30 to 45 new guests requests a day. Are you listening to this? Are you getting 30 to 45 new guest requests a day? To those of you who were like, “Well, no, my salon still closed,” I know. I’m talking about stylists whose salons are still closed.
These are guests who are like, “When you open, I will do anything to get in to see you,” because they feel like their existing stylists fell off the map. Has gone quiet. Didn’t stay consistent with communication.
I know some of us had the best of intentions and it’s like, “Well, when I come back, I’m going to pick back up where I left off business.” Doesn’t work like that. You have to stay consistent throughout.
So doubling down in your marketing now is very important. Whenever there’s a recession—which let’s be honest, that’s what we’re walking into right now. Whenever there’s a recession, consumer confidence wanes. That’s one of the indicators of recession. Go ahead and Google it, look up “indicators of recession.” Consumer confidence is a huge piece of that.
When consumers are more picky, when they’re less loosey-goosey about how they spend their money. They look for quality.
The time to get sharp with your marketing is now. It’s not in six months. It’s not like, “All right. When I get my wheels in order and when I understand how to run a salon and this crazy pandemic, when you don’t have to wear masks anymore, then I’m going to double down.” Too late. You missed it. The time is right now. It’s in the gap. This is when tremendous businesses are built and I want to empower you to do that.
Prediction number six: The low-cost market will have a huge gap. How many of you were high-performers who had two or three price increases in the last four months? Raise your hand. I see you, successful stylists and stylists who stayed sharp with their marketing. I was coaching one yesterday who said she’s increased her prices by 20 bucks a service in the last three months, meaning haircuts are $20 more, root touch-ups are $20 more, guests are paying $40 more than historically.
What happens when that occurs is that the low-cost market sees a gap. We know, based on the first stat that I shared, that our industry is going to see a mass exodus. Do you think those are going to be top performers who leave? Because they’re not.
The top performers have secured their spot. They’re cool. They’re good to go. They’re going to keep raising their prices. The demand is going to increase. They’ll be working smarter, not harder, working less hours, making more money. Life is going to be great.
Those who were struggling before are going to be part of the exodus. Those were, generally speaking, lower-priced stylists and clients who were once paying $20 a haircut won’t have as many places to go.
I was coaching a stylist earlier this week who said she had a stylist on her team who was charging 45 bucks a haircut. That stylist has now left and some of her clients were sending their children to see this stylist at the $45 price point because it made sense, right? You don’t want your eight-year-old getting an expensive haircut. Well, this stylist now said, “I’m doing $112 kids cuts cause my clients have nowhere to take their children.” That is the level of desperation from clients right now, $112 for an eight-year-old’s haircut.
This is not a fancy market. And not talking Beverly Hills right now…this is the average clientele because there’s such a gap in that low-end market right now.
I’m not saying discount yourself. I mean, this successful stylist is doing $112 kids cuts. She’s doing great. But what I’m saying is if you are at the lower-end market and you were previously struggling, go back to stat number five. I want you to be sharp in your marketing because you are facing a tremendous opportunity.
If you choose to master the business game right now, that comes to my next prediction. In 2023, we’re going to see a rush of new stylists entering the industry. Oh yeah. This was all great news up until that one, right? Opportunity, opportunity, opportunity…wait for it.
How many of you were doing hair in 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010 like I was? What happened to us in 2014, 2015? Social media happened and it blew senior stylists out of the water. It changed the market forever. Stylists who had built this long-term reputation were building super easily back in 2007, 2008, 2009, because clients would say, “I would like to see the owner who has the most experience.”
Experience has taken on a whole new level. It has nothing to do with years behind the chair anymore, right? It’s about your marketing game. We have to know that in two years, three years, four years, somewhere in there—I’m saying by 2023, there will be a push to the trades.
More people will be getting into our industry and a few others—and we have to wait and see the trends are—but these newbies are going to be hungry.
So yeah, you have about three years to figure this thing out and cement your space in the industry. This is a very crucial time.
I’ve been talking to my Thrivers about this pandemic. Almost like a tsunami. Do you guys see what a tsunami is? What happens is the ocean first sucks the water back in. It’s not an instant rush onto the shore. The tsunami sucks all the water back in and it’s quiet. That’s like what was happening when we were social distancing; it was like we knew something was coming. We weren’t sure what it was. You’re kind of panicking to see what happens. Clients aren’t coming in. The sand is dry. Then what happens? Salons open and there’s a massive rush of water. The demand is crazy. You can’t see everybody fast enough because everybody is dying to get in to see you, right?
So what’s going to happen is the tsunami hits, the area recovers, and then normal waves are going to crash onto the shore. Those normal waves are going to be like new stylists coming in over and over and over again. You need to be ready. Normalcy will return, and it’s going to come back strong and you need to be ready for that.
I keep thinking back to Gary Vaynerchuk right now. If you guys are Gary V fans, listen, you love him or you hate him, and I always think it’s comical that we call that guy a motivational coach when he’s walking around telling everybody how much they suck, but there’s a lot to what he coaches to is true.
What he’s been saying for a decade is entrepreneurship is sexy when times are good. Entrepreneurship is terrifying in a recession. Here we are.
And so what’s going to happen is all of these people with these cutie little t-shirt brands and influencers—you guys influencers, the people who had been paid a hundred thousand dollars to post a picture of themselves using some kind of specific lipstick—buh-bye.
Do you think brands are paying that kind of money right now to influencers? They are not. What’s going to happen is all of these people who had these businesses that were doing okay when the times are good are going to be out of a job. They’re going to turn to trades like ours to get a normal J O B.
You have three years to figure this out. This is the time the mass exodus is happening. Now it’s creating a gap and an opportunity more stylists are coming and you need to secure your place before they get here.
Last but not least, I think that quality over quantity will surge. In my last predictions episode, I talked about how clients will be less patient. We were living in an Amazon Prime kind of world back then. We want it and we want it now, and I don’t want to have to talk to another human to get it. And you better hurry up and get here. And I want it by tomorrow. And why can’t I have everything that I need right this second, right?
We all felt that way. Well, in social distancing and in what we’ve experienced in the pandemic, it’s almost like going back in time. What we want as consumers has changed greatly. We value human experience. We value being cared for.
The personal care industry—holy smokes—is about to get inundated. You guys know how invaluable human touch is. People literally can’t survive without it. And for some of you, I want you to remember the kind of power you have as a hair stylist.
For some of you, when you do a shampoo and you put your hand on somebody’s shoulder, that is the only human contact they will receive until they see you again, 12 weeks later. And that’s the truth. People can’t live without human contact. It is crucial and important.
It saddens me to say that, it always breaks my heart, but it excites me for our industry because I see estheticians, massage therapists, hair stylists being the pillar of hope for these people who have had nothing for months. How desperate somebody is just to have a hand massage by their manicurist? I mean, huge.
So what I’m going to be coaching to putting value in is in-salon guest experience, between visit guest experience—you guys I’ve been preaching to this forever. That is how I built my clientele is the between visit guest experience. You got to do it and you got to do it right.
So the guest experience in the salon, the between visit guest experience, and also stylists are gonna put pressure on how they’re cared for by their owner.
There has been a cry for years from stylists saying, “I need leadership. I don’t need to be bossed around. I don’t need to be micromanaged. I need a leader.”
It is important for our owners to show up as leaders valuing things like this, not doubling down on, “I need you to make more money.”
I understand we are in a money panic mode. I get it. The fastest way to get more money is not talking about more money. It’s about doubling down on guest experience, between visit guest experience, showing up on social media, getting your marketing game right, creating a funnel, right? All of those kinds of things are important.
So that is what I see yet to come. We will circle back probably in another year and see how close I’ve gotten. But what I want you to do is see this as a tremendous time of opportunity for our industry.
The last few episodes, I’ve talked you through what to do if you’re at a crossroads. For me, I’m staying the heck in. I see this as being the best time to be a hair stylist there has ever been. If you can weather this storm, get ready to reap the rewards on the flip side.
You guys, so much love, happy business building, and I’ll see you on the next one.
